"Mr. Young, When I asked you what the color of a stop sign was, I was not
referring to the button on your VCR."
So with that, we'll start off with a new instalment of The Nudge's Draft Value Chart. It's pretty simple and self explanatory. We'll look at a position and I'll tell you what round the player deserves to get picked in:
"Based Solely on Field Performance Alone."
I don't care how fast someone can run a forty, or how many reps of 250 a kid could do, Hell, I don't even care about the most important stat of all coming out of the combine, the velocity of the ball on a fifteen yard out. See, everybody could sit there with their stop watches and radar guns, but the simple matter of whether or not someone is a "Player" or not is really the thing that matters. So here's the first installment, let's start with the most important position on the field, Quarterback. I'll give the players in the order that I feel they should be drafted in (trust me, they will definitely not be drafted in that order). I'll give my numerical rating, QB #1, QB #2 etc. and I'll let you know which of the experts are disagreeing me. Here's the thing, guys who have spent over forty years trying to determine who will be successful going from college ball to the pro's have the exact same success rate as a monkey picking frickin names out of a hat. It doesn't matter who you are, or how good you think you are at this, I got news for you, it's all luck.
1st Round
1) Mathew Stafford, Georgia, 6'2" 235. Todd McShay #2QB, Kiper #1 QB, Scouts Inc. #2 QB (Grade 96) (Nudge Grade 85)
2) Dirty Sanchez, USC, 6'2" 225. Todd McShay #1QB, Kiper #2, Scouts Inc. #1 (Grade 97) (Nudge Grade 80)
2nd Round
3) Josh Freeman, Kansas State, 6'5", 238 (Nudge Grade 73) Big frame, big gun, bad decisions. Doesn't read defenses well. Will wind up being over matched in the NFL. Possibly after a number of years sitting on the bench, might actually produce.
3rd Round
4) Rhett Bomar, Sam Houston State, 6'2" 212 (Nudge Grade 68) Scouts Inc #5. Got kicked off of Oklahoma, leading to Bradford winning the Heisman. If Bomar stayed in Norman, it's "Hey, what is the name of the second string quarterback, Branford?"
5) David Johnson, Tulsa, 6'2" 220 (Nudge Grade 68) Great College Player. Scouts Inc #18. I cannot believe how accurate an arm he has, and how well he reads the defenses. Very good college player that will not do well in the pros. Someone is going to take a chance on him in the third or fourth round based solely on his accuracy.
6) Graham Harrell, Texas Tech, 6'2" 199 (Nudge Grade 67) Great College Player. Scouts Inc #6. A system guy, it was the system that put up all those numbers. Harrell just had to sit back and close his eyes. The remote control in Mike Leach's pocket guided the ball to Crabtree et al. Look, I have always knocked two (Three) systems for not producing productive NFL quarterbacks. #1 is the Tedford/Bellotti system of Cal and Oregon, plus a little Arizona State. And the other system is Leach's. Until one of his guys (Cumbie, Kingsbury etc....) becomes a productive part of an NFL System, I wouldn't take a chance on this kid.
4th Round
7) Tom Brandstater, Fresno State, 6'4" 215 (Nudge Grade 65) Good College Player. Scouts Inc. #13 Solid player, nice size. Plays in a pro style offense. Before this year, people were actually talking about him in the second round. Production really dropped off in his senior year. Nice project for a team that has time. Will never be a starter but could be a nice second stringer.
8) Ben Olsen, UCLA, 6'4" 233 ( Nudge Grade 58) Scouts Inc rank #30. Too many injuries. Has been at UCLA since the Carter Administration. Is presently thirty nine years old. Only player in history to get 23 consecutive medical redshirt eligibility waivers. Was hurt way too often to ever be able to tell how consistent he is. This kid is the wild Card of the position. He has all the tools, the maturity, he's not a kid. If a team can keep him healthy, he might be good.
9) Rudy Carpenter, Arizona State, 6'1" 223. Scouts Inc #22. Too inconsistent. Nice stuff when he's awake on the field. Seriously, this kid to out and out disappear off the face of the Earth. Has had trouble starting as the QB in his career. Another project. Don't pick him.
10) Nate Davis, Ball State, 6'1" 217. Souts Inc #4. Great College Player. The Little engine that could. If there's one kid that might, might become a surprising starter in the NFL, its gonna be him. My only problem with him is that once everyone started talking about him as a pro prospect, he disappeared in his last two games. I think he lacks the arm strength. Makes good decisions and uses his legs to buy him some time. Comes out of the MAC, which so far has produced some respectable NFL QB talent.
